UNITYFROZEN · NO TUNING

Forward paper test of the noon weather model · declared 2026-09-24 · evaluation locked until 2026-10-24 and 100 city-days · 2026-09-25 01:38 UTC
History: what UNITY did at every city's noon, newest day first. A quiet day is the rule working: the model checks every temperature bracket and only trades when its estimate beats the market price by more than 5¢ after fees.

Thursday, September 24, 2026 (today)

20 cities checked · 120 temperature brackets evaluated · 0 trades
cityfocus bracketmarket saysmodel sayswhat happenedactual high
Atlanta High of 78-79° 1% likely 0% likely price outside the 5-95¢ range - no trade pending
Austin High of 96-97° 44% likely 48% likely small edge (+2.5¢), not enough - no trade pending
Boston High of 63-64° 69% likely 71% likely small edge (+0.7¢), not enough - no trade pending
Chicago High of 68-69° 68% likely 73% likely small edge (+3.4¢), not enough - no trade pending
Dallas High of 93-94° 51% likely 56% likely close call: edge +3.7¢, just under the 5¢ bar - no trade pending
Denver High of 68-69° 1% likely 0% likely price outside the 5-95¢ range - no trade pending
Houston High above 99° 1% likely 0% likely price outside the 5-95¢ range - no trade pending
Las Vegas High below 92° 1% likely 0% likely price outside the 5-95¢ range - no trade pending
Los Angeles High of 78-79° 64% likely 68% likely small edge (+2.8¢), not enough - no trade pending
Miami High of 90-91° 35% likely 40% likely small edge (+3.0¢), not enough - no trade pending
Minneapolis High of 69-70° 38% likely 39% likely market and model agree - no trade pending
New Orleans High of 89-90° 71% likely 73% likely small edge (+0.9¢), not enough - no trade pending
NYC High of 66-67° 64% likely 67% likely small edge (+1.1¢), not enough - no trade pending
Oklahoma City High of 93-94° 45% likely 47% likely market and model agree - no trade pending
Philadelphia High of 71-72° 1% likely 0% likely price outside the 5-95¢ range - no trade pending
Phoenix High below 96° 100% likely 100% likely price outside the 5-95¢ range - no trade pending
San Antonio High of 95-96° 71% likely 74% likely small edge (+1.2¢), not enough - no trade pending
San Francisco High below 72° 2% likely 0% likely price outside the 5-95¢ range - no trade pending
Seattle High of 58-59° 1% likely 0% likely price outside the 5-95¢ range - no trade pending
Washington DC High above 70° 1% likely 0% likely price outside the 5-95¢ range - no trade pending
Every number here comes from the decision log in /opt/unity/unity.duckdb